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  • #16
    interesting

    I am confident of my information. I had it detailed but the 15 post limit stopped me as I needed url's to back up what I am saying.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by cwi555 View Post
      I am confident of my information. I had it detailed but the 15 post limit stopped me as I needed url's to back up what I am saying.
      Originally posted by Big_Saw View Post
      Pretty good theory....might even be accurate, to a degree...
      Have a look at the charts from 1985 to present.
      Many URL's of charts for silver gold etc deleted thanks to the special education rules of no urls.
      Hopefully you can still get the idea of what I was trying to point out.
      Now a couple of really clear examples of market manipulation.

      This next one is not only clear it is criminally blatant

      How does anything go from being worth 10K per ounce to 1K per ounce in 6 months?
      Try as I might, I could find no valid reason. What I did find was plenty of signs of market manipulation.

      Ask yourself this, how many times do you see Gold being advertised on mass media outlets vs silver?
      Why is the paperwork and laws related to overseas gold transfers so hard and silver so easy?

      While we are at it, I'll give you an example of a group that makes no bones about their intent to manipulate:
      An excerpt from their web site:

      "Founded in 1987, the World Gold Council is an organisation formed and funded by the world's leading gold mining companies with the aim of stimulating and maximising the demand for, and holding of, gold by consumers, investors, industry, and the official sector. "

      Funny thing is, in alternating years they put out just the opposite only it's silver. They like to delete it when they do this, but they are quoted all over the web when they do. An example is this report:

      I verified this when it came out years ago. Yes there is in fact far more gold than silver.

      Have a look at these numbers:
      Dec 29 2000 silver was at 4.57 per ounce U.S.
      Same date Gold was at 273 per ounce U.S.

      Todays spot close:
      Silver:18.40 +302% change from dec 2000.
      Gold:1139.80 +317% change from dec 2000.
      Makes gold look good without making silver look bad at the same time.

      Now lets look at some different numbers, lets look at the absolute bottom of silver vs todays close since 1985. (that close Dec 29, 2000 was the absolute bottom for gold since 85)
      Silver Jan 93. 3.75 per ounce.
      Thats +390% over all in the 1985 through 2009 current.
      Gold is + 317% over all in the 1985 through 2009 current.

      So which performed better? Gold or silver in those 24 years???

      Yet all you hear is buy gold, buy it now... Of course they want you to buy it now, they need you to buy it now so they can buy the freaking silver.
      BTW There also playing with the rhodium, they have very recently pulled the pin on it and driving it up.

      I am confident of my information. To me there is no maybe about it, the markets are not only manipulated, but heavily so.

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      • #18
        There are a multitude of investors that have done well playing the GSR (Gold Silver Ratio), and had I been privvy to such years ago, I might well be one of them, and who knows, if the seams on the econmic fabric don't totally rip, I may try and leverage some of my silver holdings for gold, if the numbers dictate, but for now, my goals are to obtain as much silver as I can realistically afford, in the shortest time possible, at or below spot value. I have been buying ONLY pre 1964 US coinage and American Silver Eagles, as I think these will be the most favorable to hold in a SHTF scenario.

        This is a win/win scenario, if life goes on for decades without a meltdown, I, at worst, have exchanged the "always declining" greenbacks for a proven value holder that I can proudly handoff to the little hubs one day. It just makes sense...

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        • #19
          Ok I have two things to say. One is an anecdote concerning the value of gold over the years. The other concerns the vlaue of American Silver eagles in a SHTF situation.

          the silver eagle concern first. Silver eagles are not the best investment if you are buying large quantities for a SHTF situation. THe reason for this is you are paying a premium for the COIN and sulver. WIth this in mind buy silver rounds from a reputable metals dealer. They have the same purity as the American Silver Eagle but at only 10% over spot value. Now if you are buying the Eagle for the collectibility of them then by all means continue doing so. I myself have silver rounds and silver collectible coins, just in case the S never HTF.

          The anecdote.
          In the ROman Empire a single ounce of gold would buy a man a top quality toga, a fine pair of top quality leather sandals, and a finely made leather belt. Not a bad deal.
          In the 1920's U.S. a man could spend an ounce of gold and get a top quality suit, a pair of handmade shoes, and a fienly crafted leather belt and might even have something lerft.
          Today one ounce of gold could get a man a nice suit, a top quality pair of shoes, and a hand made leather belt. If that same man would go to Joseph A Bnaks during one of their specials he could get even more.
          But you get the picture. That same ounce of gold NEVER lost or gained value per say. It has a buying power that has remained constant throughout history. And the same can be said for other precious metals that have been around for a long long time. Exotic alloys and metals do not of course fit into this category in most circumstances.

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          • #20
            Two thoughts on this.

            Coin, might be easier to use for trade, as the average person may feel more comfortable that it is authentic and pure. Testing and verification will be difficult. Just a thought.

            Gold value. I think the one thing missing from this is something that has not yet occured, here in the USA. Hyper-Inflation. Many feel that hyper-inflation will be one of the triggers in a SHTF scenario. No one knows what gold will buy under those circumstances. The dollar crashes, inflation hits 100%, 1,000% or 10,000% over a short period. Gas hits $65 a gallon. Gold value may not keep up with that type of inflation. Today, an ounce of gold would buy 350 gallons of fuel, roughly. At $65 a gallon, it is not certain that it will still buy 350 gallons. I feel we do not know, because a scenario as being discussed has never occured.

            Originally posted by cbprice797 View Post
            Ok I have two things to say. One is an anecdote concerning the value of gold over the years. The other concerns the vlaue of American Silver eagles in a SHTF situation.

            the silver eagle concern first. Silver eagles are not the best investment if you are buying large quantities for a SHTF situation. THe reason for this is you are paying a premium for the COIN and sulver. WIth this in mind buy silver rounds from a reputable metals dealer. They have the same purity as the American Silver Eagle but at only 10% over spot value. Now if you are buying the Eagle for the collectibility of them then by all means continue doing so. I myself have silver rounds and silver collectible coins, just in case the S never HTF.

            The anecdote.
            In the ROman Empire a single ounce of gold would buy a man a top quality toga, a fine pair of top quality leather sandals, and a finely made leather belt. Not a bad deal.
            In the 1920's U.S. a man could spend an ounce of gold and get a top quality suit, a pair of handmade shoes, and a fienly crafted leather belt and might even have something lerft.
            Today one ounce of gold could get a man a nice suit, a top quality pair of shoes, and a hand made leather belt. If that same man would go to Joseph A Bnaks during one of their specials he could get even more.
            But you get the picture. That same ounce of gold NEVER lost or gained value per say. It has a buying power that has remained constant throughout history. And the same can be said for other precious metals that have been around for a long long time. Exotic alloys and metals do not of course fit into this category in most circumstances.

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            • #21
              well in answer to your question about the stability of the value of gold...

              Even unto the end of the Roman Empire gold maintained roughly this same value. Even after their coinage became practically valueless due the debasing of their silver currency. It started with the main coin in the last 600 or so years, denarius, slowly losing its value as a coin. While the silver bullion remained roughly the same value. The same apploied to the less minted gold coinage. These also lost value over time due to the debasement of the gold content within the coin. This debasement of the value of the COIN did nothing to lessen the value of the GOLD itself. Yes it took more gold COINS to but the toga, sandles, and belt but the amount of GOLD used remained the same. This is the thing about debased currency, it takes MORE of it to buy things though the value of the metal that it is made of is still relatively the same value as before.

              Yes we have had something similar to what you described with the Hyperinflation situation happen before. It happened to the Weimar Republic just after WW1.

              THe $65 dollar a gallon gasoline example would solve itself in all likelyhood. In a case of Hyperinflation value of hard metals will not LOSE value. People will accept it because it is NOT affiliated with the government useless money. An example of this can be seen in the Weimar Repulic shortly after WW1. THey were experiencing severe hyperinflation, they were actually making paper money that had 100MILLION Marks stamped on it. Now this paper moeny was truly fiat money and quite valueless. Loaves of bread would sell for 1 MILLION marks and up, if you could find a vendor willing to sell the bread for the worthless marks. But the BARTER economy was very vibrant during these years. You could find fruit vendors willling to ttrade for milk, meat, precious metals, gems, all manner of things,this is fact not just my opinion because I did a research paper for a Weimar Republic class I took as a senior in college. For the precious metals example people were trading daily their siverware, gold watches, gold jewelry, for food and getting much more food for a gold wedding band than they could get for a few MILLION of the worthless marks. This will be true for the gasoline as well. It might very well cost $65 a gallon but given the choice of worthless currency or hard precious metals the vendor will accept the metals. And if you are thinking that gold would be $1000 an ounce stilll then you are wrong. Values of precious commodities goes up during Hyperinflation. So while one ounce of gold today buys 350 gallons of gas as you state it will still purchase roughly the same amount at $65 a gallon because the value fo the gold will also skyrocket.
              Last edited by cbprice797; 11-17-2009, 01:44 PM.

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              • #22
                What I was saying is that, the US, has never experienced it. It has happened several times to other nations. The most recent I can recall is Zimbabwe in 2008 and Yugoslavia in 1994. It also happened to several countires in Europe after WWII.

                I am not arguing that your description is historically wrong. I am just saying I will not bet my life that it will continue in the same manner. We live in a very different place than 1919. The value of anything is only what someone else is willing to give you for it.

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                • #23
                  Yes this is a very different world from 1919 Germany, or anyewhere else. But one thing is the same.... people.

                  People in a hyperinflation situation, even in the U.S., will not accept the fiat currency. Except for a few that have "faith" in the government. And these will soon stop accepting it when they find that they cannot get rid of the stuff. So what happens then?

                  Bartering sets in. Products or work for products or work. This will result in precious metals once again becoming important in the economy. The few gallons of gas for an ounce of gold theory doesnt hold water( or gas). Though once the big tanks start to empty or are controlled by a few people the cost will surely go up and might eventually reach a few glallons for an ounce of gold. Though this would likely be many many months or years after the "fall", sort of like Mad Max.

                  Anyway gold and silver and platinum will in all likelihood be very stable for the purposes of trade. As for bullets for trde items as someone else mentioned?
                  There is no way that you should trade bullets. That is unless you have a fortified little shop/store/trading post set up to protect you and you other wares from someone coming back with their buddies and the bullets that used to belong to you and try to take the rest of the stuff you have.
                  Two things that would be good for trade are clothes/boots and seeds. Neither of these can be brought back to your trading spot and be used to kill you.
                  Last edited by cbprice797; 11-17-2009, 03:46 PM.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by cbprice797 View Post
                    There is no way that you should trade bullets. That is unless you have a fortified little shop/store/trading post set up to protect you and you other wares from someone coming back with their buddies and the bullets that used to belong to you and try to take the rest of the stuff you have.
                    I couldn't agree more. Don't give anyone anything that will come back to haunt you later.
                    As Zombie Axe would say...
                    "Someday someone may kill you with your own gun, but they should have to beat you to death with it because it is empty."

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                    • #25
                      Actually, they both have excellent arguments...both scenarios are plausible, but I'm firmly in the "solid value of metals" camp...the dollar wasn't even an inkling when people first valued metals and gems...I think it's timeless and ageless....
                      "I Have Sworn Upon the Altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man." -Thomas Jefferson

                      "When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it." -Frederic Bastiat

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                      • #26
                        I agree 100% on how quickly greenbacks would become useless and not accepted as currency. I also agree that short term, PM's would keep the path you have described, as history proves. My thought was the more long term you mentioned. But, I do not agree that people are still people. We are not the same people from 1919 or even 1950. The general population is weaker and lacking many of the basic skills needed to survive. Back in our Great Depression, they adapted to so well, because they already lived a hard life, in comparison to today.

                        As far as trading ammo. To each his own. While I would not trade it out of my BOL, when going to a marketplace to trade, I think the value will be very good. Plus, I can store and transport a lot more ammo than boots and clothes.

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                        • #27
                          As far as bartering value, damn near anything from pre hyper inflation will have barter value. The difference with gold and silver is that it will be more likely to be taken as a currency than a bartering item. Having seen what happens in countries that have bitten the dust, gold and silver did in fact live up to their name sakes.
                          What I don't think people in general understand is what would make good bartering items.
                          Seeds and clothing are all well and good, but when is the last time you wiped your arse with your hand? Simple toilet paper went for 450 bolivars a roll in 1995 venezuela. That was about 2 cents U.S. and that was for 180 grit variant.
                          Small cheap pocket knives, salt, spices, hammers/tools, about anything you take for granted as being at commie world or ace hardware is fodder for trade.
                          Yeast packs are a big one. Very small cheap packets, but with them bread, beer, and other items can be made? How many yeast packs do you have? I personally keep 50 pounds of the stuff at the price it sells for. If I don't use it I toss it and buy 50 more.
                          Moonshine, it has and will trade when there is no food. It's human nature to drown the sorrows away. Either learn how to make it, or keep stores of liquor in a keg.
                          Those cheap chinese tool sets you see in convenience stores. How much is a tool worth when it is all that stands between you and getting your generator up and running? Worse yet, what they sell for at flee markets and auctions. Pennies for them in some cases.
                          Metal in general, if you know how to work it, there is a skill beyond measure. Think about the old time blacksmith. You did not have a town until you had a blacksmith.

                          Knowledge: Knowledge is the key to it all. If you don't have it but know how to make it from the ground up, your more prepared than the guy with 1/2 a million dollars worth of gold/silver/bartering stock stored in some hole somewhere. Whats that guy going to do if someone gets to his hole first and he has no knowledge how to recreate what was there?
                          How many here know how to cast, refine, alloy, metals? I have made a 1hp lawn mower/small generator motor from the ore up. The only tools I had to start with was a hammer and anvil. All tools, parts, and everything inbetween refined and made by myself. How many of you know how to do that, and how many of you planned to just get it at wally world?

                          Give you a more useful variant. Brass. Simple copper and tin, yet every time you shoot a brass case cartridge your using it.

                          I think you should see the point. At the end of the day, your strongest and best survival/bartering tool is your mind. Every physical thing you have put back can be taken from you or destroyed, but as long as your alive, you have your mind.

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                          • #28
                            cwi, I agree with you on knowledge being priceless. You did raise a question for me though. I have a quantity of silverware I bought at an auction about 25 years ago. Some is sterling silver and some is silver plated. Does anyone know where this could be smelted and refined to get straight silver. Think it would be worth more than the use as a fork, knife, or spoon.
                            Mike

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by firemanphob View Post
                              cwi, I agree with you on knowledge being priceless. You did raise a question for me though. I have a quantity of silverware I bought at an auction about 25 years ago. Some is sterling silver and some is silver plated. Does anyone know where this could be smelted and refined to get straight silver. Think it would be worth more than the use as a fork, knife, or spoon.
                              Mike
                              Standard sterling silver is 92.5 percent silver. If it's pure sterling, you may wish to sell it as is. The silver plating is usually only 5-10 mils silver. By weight you would have to have a ton of it to make it worth while striping the silver.

                              As for the sterling, nitric acid and other chems are usually used to refine it.
                              You need 50:50 nitric/water.
                              Getting the nitric has been a pain in the arse since 911. It is watched closely by the fed, so be prepared to answer questions.
                              Disolve the silver in the solution, mild warming of the solution will speed it along but in all cases "DO NOT" breath the fumes, and "DO NOT" bring it to boil.
                              This creates silver nitrate.
                              Once all the silver is dissolved filter the solution using coffee filters, you want the clear solution. The easiest way to get the Silver to precipitate out of the solution is to use Copper wire. Copper wire is pure copper and you don't have to worry about any other metals getting in your solution. Suspend the Copper wire, using household string in the acid solution. A white-grayish precipitate will start to appear around the copper wire. Tap the suspended Copper (lightly) and the Silver precipitate will sink to the bottom.
                              The solution should be light blue when all the silver has dropped out.
                              If not run a fresh wire through it again.
                              Filter the solution again with coffee filters, keeping the silver precip.
                              Rinse the silver precip thouroughly with water. If you see blue copper nitrate precip (what you replaced the silver precipitate with)
                              Effectively what you have left is 999 silver.
                              At that point you cast it into bullion.

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