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Event Impacts and Probable Responses
The following represents a three tier forecasting model of potential “trigger events”. It is known that
large scale events often initiate a reaction from a government and its citizens. This forecasting
model attempts to generalize responses to these events. The purpose of this forecasting model is to
assist in forming plans to deal with potential problems as they occur. As is the case with any
forecasting model, predicting human reactions to any scenario is complicated at best. I have made an
effort to mold this report to fit our geographic/demographic profile. It is possible that these events (or
similar) may progress in step, or go from one extreme to the other. It is also possible that two or more
events may trigger at the same time. Please assist in making suggestions that may improve this
model.
Scenario 1: Economic Recession
This is our current threat level. The United States housing market correction (a consequence of United
States housing bubble) and subprime mortgage crisis has significantly contributed to a recession. The
2008/2009 recession is seeing private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This
indicates the depth and severity of the current recession. With consumer confidence so low,
recovery will take a long time. Consumers in the U.S. have been hard hit by the current recession,
with the value of their houses dropping and their pension savings decimated on the stock market.
Not only have consumers watched their wealth being eroded – they are now fearing for their jobs as
unemployment rises. With developments like these, it would be reasonable for Americans to grow
concerned that the recession is bringing a return to the urban crime and violence more common in
the '70s and '80s. Locally, we are already seeing an increase in criminal activity as well as the types
of crimes associated with either mental illness or depression (family violence ect…) Local gangs are
becoming more powerful by way of recruitment during tough times. WNC has a very high
concentration of Sureños who have become emboldened because of their high numbers.
Recommendations:
1. Fortify in place - Look at the security measures of your home. Make adjustments as
needed.
2. Gather intelligence – Research and record information on criminal activity in your area.
Record geographical data on gang activity and base of operations. Learn how these
elements “Tag” their territory. It is becoming more difficult to identify individual gang
members as they are changing tactics on clothing and tattoos, but common sense and some
profiling techniques can help. If you have law enforcement contacts, they can assist you in
identifying areas where criminals and gang members are known to be. Record this
information on a map or use tools like Google Earth to document the intelligence.
3. Communicate & Network – Continue to communicate, Network and train with your group.
Establish plans of action for each threat level and practice these plans of action.
Communicate and network with other groups in your area. Share training objectives and
plans of action for each threat level. Incorporate some multi-level training with satellite
groups. Establish a safe location as a rally point in case of extreme emergency. Incorporate
a Challenge & Pass safeguard for the rally point. Distribute this plan to surrounding groups.
Networking plans should incorporate more than tactical professionals. Think of these people
as support professionals. These people will not be incorporated into each group, but should
be considered as part of a support network. Support personnel may include and are not
limited to:
• Medical professionals
• Research
• Engineering – Electrical – Structural ect.
• Mechanical
• Agricultural professionals
The subject matter experts should be incorporated into the network by using the same
filtering techniques used for group members. Although operational planning objectives do not
need to be disseminated to all of the above mentioned individuals, the emergency plan
should be disseminated.
Scenario 2: Economic Depression
Historical facts
13 million people became unemployed. In 1932, 34 million people belonged to families with
no regular full-time wage earner. Industrial production fell by nearly 45% between the years 1929
and 1932. Homebuilding dropped by 80% between the years 1929 and 1932. From the years 1929
to 1932, about 5,000 banks went out of business. By 1933, 11,000 of the US' 25,000 banks had
failed. In 1933, 25% of all workers and 37% of all nonfarm workers were unemployed. In Cleveland,
Ohio, the unemployment rate was 60%; in Toledo, Ohio, 80% over one million families lost their
farms between 1930 and 1934. Between 1929 and 1932 the income of the average American family
was reduced by 40%. Nine million savings accounts had been wiped out between 1930 and 1933.
273,000 families had been evicted from their homes in 1932. There were two million homeless
people migrating around the country. Over 60% of Americans were categorized as poor by the
federal government in 1933. New York social workers reported that 25% of all schoolchildren were
malnourished. In the mining counties of West Virginia, Illinois, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania, the
proportion of malnourished children was perhaps as high as 90%. Many people became ill with
diseases such as tuberculosis.
The difference between public reactions for an Economic Depression in the 30’s as
compared to today may be the public response to such duress. Several contributing factors argue
for violent reactions by some elements of the public. One is the inability of most people today to
cope with and deal with hardships. The standard of living has greatly improved since the 1930’s.
The U.S. Army War College in November warned in a monograph titled “Known Unknowns:
Unconventional ‘Strategic Shocks’ in Defense Strategy Development” of crash-induced unrest:
The military must be prepared, the document warned, for a “violent, strategic dislocation
inside the United States,” which could be provoked by “unforeseen economic collapse,”
“purposeful domestic resistance,” “pervasive public health emergencies” or “loss of
functioning political and legal order.” The “widespread civil violence,” the document said,
“would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic
domestic order and human security.”
“An American government and defense establishment lulled into complacency by a longsecure
domestic order would be forced to rapidly divest some or most external security
commitments in order to address rapidly expanding human insecurity at home,”.
“Under the most extreme circumstances, this might include use of military force against
hostile groups inside the United States. Further, DoD [the Department of Defense] would be,
by necessity, an essential enabling hub for the continuity of political authority in a multi-state
or nationwide civil conflict or disturbance,” .
Recommendations:
1. Fortify in place - Look at the security measures of your home and neighborhood. Make
adjustments as needed. Involve your neighbors in security and planning. Work with local
law enforcement as well as DOD assets when possible.
2. Meet basic needs – Some basic resources may be strained by the economic situation.
Food, Gas, Oil and perhaps water supplies may be short. Have a community based
approach to solve these problems. Look for subject matter experts to solve community
based problems, such as home based medical care.
3. Gather intelligence – Research and record information on criminal activity in your area.
Use any previous recorded crime data to enhance security measures for your neighborhood.
Watch for signs of increased DOD presence as well as restrictions of movement by
government officials. As crime increases, responses to these crimes will be met with the
appropriate counter force. Use this information to assist in the modification of the forecasting
model and make appropriate changes to that model.
4. Communicate & Network – Communications with your group should increase.
Communications with satellite groups should increase. Discuss the next threat level and
adjust both the forecasting model and your plan of action as needed. Be aware of your
group geographic limitations regarding possible restriction of movement. Adjust
communications to compensate for restrictions of movement. Use the current threat level as
a tool of “education” in your networking process. Draft alternate plans of communication
should a catastrophic event compromise current communications. Test these alternate forms
of communication on a regular basis.
5. Enhance training and planning – Multi level training events with satellite groups should be
conducted more frequently. Plan training scenarios on current events. Modify and enhance
training objectives as needed. Monitor activity at all planned rally points and adjust locations
if needed.
Scenario 3: “Black Swan Event”
A Black Swan event or occurrence is one that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a
situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. Some analysts agree that the attack on 9-
11-2001 was such an event. The DOD refers to these events as “Strategic Shocks”. After 9-11, the
DOD looked more closely at forecasting potential Strategic Shocks. Many of the forecasting models
included non-military events (Natural disaster, Pandemic ect.) that could initiate a cascade of reactions
including civil disruptions within CONUS. Although predicting these events will greatly enhance
recommended responses on our part, it is not entirely needed for establishing general guidelines.
We must understand that a Black Swan event combined with either of the above scenarios is likely
to create greater difficulties. There are two general (possible) outcomes regarding responses of DOD-LEO
and one likely response of the civilian population. The DOD-LEO response and outcome will
be guided by the level of response of the civilian population. If event predictors indicated by the
DOD study of a Black Swan event are correct, civil unrest will likely overwhelm law enforcement
officials and the DOD will be forced to assist. There is another possibility of civil difficulties that may
even overwhelm the DOD assets. Any Black Swan event, coupled with an already weakened
economic state, may create large dislocations of population and civil unrest. A Black Swan event
may make populated areas uninhabitable.
Recommendations:
1. Relocate – Initiate your relocation plan. Move to pre-planned staging areas and gain
accountability of personnel and equipment. If possible, pre-stage non-essential items such
as tools and hardware for shelter improvement at the final objective. Pre-planned staging
areas should be used to gather before movement to the final objective. A movement plan
should be detailed and operations order issued. A secondary movement plan should be
established that does not include motor vehicles.
2. Meet basic needs – Food, Water and Shelter are priority. Enhance each of these needs as
time permits. If possible, pre-stage any items that may enhance capabilities in these areas.
Establish a long term plan for the provision of food and water. Utilize subject matter experts
in this area. Establish a plan for healthcare if possible.
3. Meet Security Needs – Establish a security plan. Improve this plan as time permits. If other
groups are located in known areas, establish a working relationship if the tactical situation
permits such a relationship.
4. Communications – Establish and improve a communications plan as time permits.
5. Resupply – This is more likely a plan that will needed to be established after a period of
adjustment. Many unknown variables will be involved in the process.
Sources
Strategic Studies Institute US Army War College
Known Unknowns: Unconventional "Strategic Shocks" in Defense Strategy Development –Nov 2008
NC Crime Control and Public Safety
North & South Carolina Gangs
Army Times
Brigade homeland tours start Oct.1 – Sept 2008
The following represents a three tier forecasting model of potential “trigger events”. It is known that
large scale events often initiate a reaction from a government and its citizens. This forecasting
model attempts to generalize responses to these events. The purpose of this forecasting model is to
assist in forming plans to deal with potential problems as they occur. As is the case with any
forecasting model, predicting human reactions to any scenario is complicated at best. I have made an
effort to mold this report to fit our geographic/demographic profile. It is possible that these events (or
similar) may progress in step, or go from one extreme to the other. It is also possible that two or more
events may trigger at the same time. Please assist in making suggestions that may improve this
model.
Scenario 1: Economic Recession
This is our current threat level. The United States housing market correction (a consequence of United
States housing bubble) and subprime mortgage crisis has significantly contributed to a recession. The
2008/2009 recession is seeing private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This
indicates the depth and severity of the current recession. With consumer confidence so low,
recovery will take a long time. Consumers in the U.S. have been hard hit by the current recession,
with the value of their houses dropping and their pension savings decimated on the stock market.
Not only have consumers watched their wealth being eroded – they are now fearing for their jobs as
unemployment rises. With developments like these, it would be reasonable for Americans to grow
concerned that the recession is bringing a return to the urban crime and violence more common in
the '70s and '80s. Locally, we are already seeing an increase in criminal activity as well as the types
of crimes associated with either mental illness or depression (family violence ect…) Local gangs are
becoming more powerful by way of recruitment during tough times. WNC has a very high
concentration of Sureños who have become emboldened because of their high numbers.
Recommendations:
1. Fortify in place - Look at the security measures of your home. Make adjustments as
needed.
2. Gather intelligence – Research and record information on criminal activity in your area.
Record geographical data on gang activity and base of operations. Learn how these
elements “Tag” their territory. It is becoming more difficult to identify individual gang
members as they are changing tactics on clothing and tattoos, but common sense and some
profiling techniques can help. If you have law enforcement contacts, they can assist you in
identifying areas where criminals and gang members are known to be. Record this
information on a map or use tools like Google Earth to document the intelligence.
3. Communicate & Network – Continue to communicate, Network and train with your group.
Establish plans of action for each threat level and practice these plans of action.
Communicate and network with other groups in your area. Share training objectives and
plans of action for each threat level. Incorporate some multi-level training with satellite
groups. Establish a safe location as a rally point in case of extreme emergency. Incorporate
a Challenge & Pass safeguard for the rally point. Distribute this plan to surrounding groups.
Networking plans should incorporate more than tactical professionals. Think of these people
as support professionals. These people will not be incorporated into each group, but should
be considered as part of a support network. Support personnel may include and are not
limited to:
• Medical professionals
• Research
• Engineering – Electrical – Structural ect.
• Mechanical
• Agricultural professionals
The subject matter experts should be incorporated into the network by using the same
filtering techniques used for group members. Although operational planning objectives do not
need to be disseminated to all of the above mentioned individuals, the emergency plan
should be disseminated.
Scenario 2: Economic Depression
Historical facts
13 million people became unemployed. In 1932, 34 million people belonged to families with
no regular full-time wage earner. Industrial production fell by nearly 45% between the years 1929
and 1932. Homebuilding dropped by 80% between the years 1929 and 1932. From the years 1929
to 1932, about 5,000 banks went out of business. By 1933, 11,000 of the US' 25,000 banks had
failed. In 1933, 25% of all workers and 37% of all nonfarm workers were unemployed. In Cleveland,
Ohio, the unemployment rate was 60%; in Toledo, Ohio, 80% over one million families lost their
farms between 1930 and 1934. Between 1929 and 1932 the income of the average American family
was reduced by 40%. Nine million savings accounts had been wiped out between 1930 and 1933.
273,000 families had been evicted from their homes in 1932. There were two million homeless
people migrating around the country. Over 60% of Americans were categorized as poor by the
federal government in 1933. New York social workers reported that 25% of all schoolchildren were
malnourished. In the mining counties of West Virginia, Illinois, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania, the
proportion of malnourished children was perhaps as high as 90%. Many people became ill with
diseases such as tuberculosis.
The difference between public reactions for an Economic Depression in the 30’s as
compared to today may be the public response to such duress. Several contributing factors argue
for violent reactions by some elements of the public. One is the inability of most people today to
cope with and deal with hardships. The standard of living has greatly improved since the 1930’s.
The U.S. Army War College in November warned in a monograph titled “Known Unknowns:
Unconventional ‘Strategic Shocks’ in Defense Strategy Development” of crash-induced unrest:
The military must be prepared, the document warned, for a “violent, strategic dislocation
inside the United States,” which could be provoked by “unforeseen economic collapse,”
“purposeful domestic resistance,” “pervasive public health emergencies” or “loss of
functioning political and legal order.” The “widespread civil violence,” the document said,
“would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic
domestic order and human security.”
“An American government and defense establishment lulled into complacency by a longsecure
domestic order would be forced to rapidly divest some or most external security
commitments in order to address rapidly expanding human insecurity at home,”.
“Under the most extreme circumstances, this might include use of military force against
hostile groups inside the United States. Further, DoD [the Department of Defense] would be,
by necessity, an essential enabling hub for the continuity of political authority in a multi-state
or nationwide civil conflict or disturbance,” .
Recommendations:
1. Fortify in place - Look at the security measures of your home and neighborhood. Make
adjustments as needed. Involve your neighbors in security and planning. Work with local
law enforcement as well as DOD assets when possible.
2. Meet basic needs – Some basic resources may be strained by the economic situation.
Food, Gas, Oil and perhaps water supplies may be short. Have a community based
approach to solve these problems. Look for subject matter experts to solve community
based problems, such as home based medical care.
3. Gather intelligence – Research and record information on criminal activity in your area.
Use any previous recorded crime data to enhance security measures for your neighborhood.
Watch for signs of increased DOD presence as well as restrictions of movement by
government officials. As crime increases, responses to these crimes will be met with the
appropriate counter force. Use this information to assist in the modification of the forecasting
model and make appropriate changes to that model.
4. Communicate & Network – Communications with your group should increase.
Communications with satellite groups should increase. Discuss the next threat level and
adjust both the forecasting model and your plan of action as needed. Be aware of your
group geographic limitations regarding possible restriction of movement. Adjust
communications to compensate for restrictions of movement. Use the current threat level as
a tool of “education” in your networking process. Draft alternate plans of communication
should a catastrophic event compromise current communications. Test these alternate forms
of communication on a regular basis.
5. Enhance training and planning – Multi level training events with satellite groups should be
conducted more frequently. Plan training scenarios on current events. Modify and enhance
training objectives as needed. Monitor activity at all planned rally points and adjust locations
if needed.
Scenario 3: “Black Swan Event”
A Black Swan event or occurrence is one that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a
situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. Some analysts agree that the attack on 9-
11-2001 was such an event. The DOD refers to these events as “Strategic Shocks”. After 9-11, the
DOD looked more closely at forecasting potential Strategic Shocks. Many of the forecasting models
included non-military events (Natural disaster, Pandemic ect.) that could initiate a cascade of reactions
including civil disruptions within CONUS. Although predicting these events will greatly enhance
recommended responses on our part, it is not entirely needed for establishing general guidelines.
We must understand that a Black Swan event combined with either of the above scenarios is likely
to create greater difficulties. There are two general (possible) outcomes regarding responses of DOD-LEO
and one likely response of the civilian population. The DOD-LEO response and outcome will
be guided by the level of response of the civilian population. If event predictors indicated by the
DOD study of a Black Swan event are correct, civil unrest will likely overwhelm law enforcement
officials and the DOD will be forced to assist. There is another possibility of civil difficulties that may
even overwhelm the DOD assets. Any Black Swan event, coupled with an already weakened
economic state, may create large dislocations of population and civil unrest. A Black Swan event
may make populated areas uninhabitable.
Recommendations:
1. Relocate – Initiate your relocation plan. Move to pre-planned staging areas and gain
accountability of personnel and equipment. If possible, pre-stage non-essential items such
as tools and hardware for shelter improvement at the final objective. Pre-planned staging
areas should be used to gather before movement to the final objective. A movement plan
should be detailed and operations order issued. A secondary movement plan should be
established that does not include motor vehicles.
2. Meet basic needs – Food, Water and Shelter are priority. Enhance each of these needs as
time permits. If possible, pre-stage any items that may enhance capabilities in these areas.
Establish a long term plan for the provision of food and water. Utilize subject matter experts
in this area. Establish a plan for healthcare if possible.
3. Meet Security Needs – Establish a security plan. Improve this plan as time permits. If other
groups are located in known areas, establish a working relationship if the tactical situation
permits such a relationship.
4. Communications – Establish and improve a communications plan as time permits.
5. Resupply – This is more likely a plan that will needed to be established after a period of
adjustment. Many unknown variables will be involved in the process.
Sources
Strategic Studies Institute US Army War College
Known Unknowns: Unconventional "Strategic Shocks" in Defense Strategy Development –Nov 2008
NC Crime Control and Public Safety
North & South Carolina Gangs
Army Times
Brigade homeland tours start Oct.1 – Sept 2008
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