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Civil Unrest

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  • #76
    Event Impacts and Probable Responses

    The following represents a three tier forecasting model of potential “trigger events”. It is known that
    large scale events often initiate a reaction from a government and its citizens. This forecasting
    model attempts to generalize responses to these events. The purpose of this forecasting model is to
    assist in forming plans to deal with potential problems as they occur. As is the case with any
    forecasting model, predicting human reactions to any scenario is complicated at best. I have made an
    effort to mold this report to fit our geographic/demographic profile. It is possible that these events (or
    similar) may progress in step, or go from one extreme to the other. It is also possible that two or more
    events may trigger at the same time. Please assist in making suggestions that may improve this

    Scenario 1: Economic Recession

    This is our current threat level. The United States housing market correction (a consequence of United
    States housing bubble) and subprime mortgage crisis has significantly contributed to a recession. The
    2008/2009 recession is seeing private consumption fall for the first time in nearly 20 years. This
    indicates the depth and severity of the current recession. With consumer confidence so low,
    recovery will take a long time. Consumers in the U.S. have been hard hit by the current recession,
    with the value of their houses dropping and their pension savings decimated on the stock market.
    Not only have consumers watched their wealth being eroded – they are now fearing for their jobs as
    unemployment rises. With developments like these, it would be reasonable for Americans to grow
    concerned that the recession is bringing a return to the urban crime and violence more common in
    the '70s and '80s. Locally, we are already seeing an increase in criminal activity as well as the types
    of crimes associated with either mental illness or depression (family violence ect…) Local gangs are
    becoming more powerful by way of recruitment during tough times. WNC has a very high
    concentration of SureƱos who have become emboldened because of their high numbers.


    1. Fortify in place - Look at the security measures of your home. Make adjustments as

    2. Gather intelligence – Research and record information on criminal activity in your area.
    Record geographical data on gang activity and base of operations. Learn how these
    elements “Tag” their territory. It is becoming more difficult to identify individual gang
    members as they are changing tactics on clothing and tattoos, but common sense and some
    profiling techniques can help. If you have law enforcement contacts, they can assist you in
    identifying areas where criminals and gang members are known to be. Record this
    information on a map or use tools like Google Earth to document the intelligence.

    3. Communicate & Network – Continue to communicate, Network and train with your group.
    Establish plans of action for each threat level and practice these plans of action.
    Communicate and network with other groups in your area. Share training objectives and
    plans of action for each threat level. Incorporate some multi-level training with satellite
    groups. Establish a safe location as a rally point in case of extreme emergency. Incorporate
    a Challenge & Pass safeguard for the rally point. Distribute this plan to surrounding groups.
    Networking plans should incorporate more than tactical professionals. Think of these people
    as support professionals. These people will not be incorporated into each group, but should
    be considered as part of a support network. Support personnel may include and are not
    limited to:

    • Medical professionals
    • Research
    • Engineering – Electrical – Structural ect.
    • Mechanical
    • Agricultural professionals

    The subject matter experts should be incorporated into the network by using the same
    filtering techniques used for group members. Although operational planning objectives do not
    need to be disseminated to all of the above mentioned individuals, the emergency plan
    should be disseminated.

    Scenario 2: Economic Depression

    Historical facts
    13 million people became unemployed. In 1932, 34 million people belonged to families with
    no regular full-time wage earner. Industrial production fell by nearly 45% between the years 1929
    and 1932. Homebuilding dropped by 80% between the years 1929 and 1932. From the years 1929
    to 1932, about 5,000 banks went out of business. By 1933, 11,000 of the US' 25,000 banks had
    failed. In 1933, 25% of all workers and 37% of all nonfarm workers were unemployed. In Cleveland,
    Ohio, the unemployment rate was 60%; in Toledo, Ohio, 80% over one million families lost their
    farms between 1930 and 1934. Between 1929 and 1932 the income of the average American family
    was reduced by 40%. Nine million savings accounts had been wiped out between 1930 and 1933.
    273,000 families had been evicted from their homes in 1932. There were two million homeless
    people migrating around the country. Over 60% of Americans were categorized as poor by the
    federal government in 1933. New York social workers reported that 25% of all schoolchildren were
    malnourished. In the mining counties of West Virginia, Illinois, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania, the
    proportion of malnourished children was perhaps as high as 90%. Many people became ill with
    diseases such as tuberculosis.

    The difference between public reactions for an Economic Depression in the 30’s as
    compared to today may be the public response to such duress. Several contributing factors argue
    for violent reactions by some elements of the public. One is the inability of most people today to
    cope with and deal with hardships. The standard of living has greatly improved since the 1930’s.

    The U.S. Army War College in November warned in a monograph titled “Known Unknowns:
    Unconventional ‘Strategic Shocks’ in Defense Strategy Development” of crash-induced unrest:

    The military must be prepared, the document warned, for a “violent, strategic dislocation
    inside the United States,” which could be provoked by “unforeseen economic collapse,”
    “purposeful domestic resistance,” “pervasive public health emergencies” or “loss of
    functioning political and legal order.” The “widespread civil violence,” the document said,
    “would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic
    domestic order and human security.”
    “An American government and defense establishment lulled into complacency by a longsecure
    domestic order would be forced to rapidly divest some or most external security
    commitments in order to address rapidly expanding human insecurity at home,”.
    “Under the most extreme circumstances, this might include use of military force against
    hostile groups inside the United States. Further, DoD [the Department of Defense] would be,
    by necessity, an essential enabling hub for the continuity of political authority in a multi-state
    or nationwide civil conflict or disturbance,” .


    1. Fortify in place - Look at the security measures of your home and neighborhood. Make
    adjustments as needed. Involve your neighbors in security and planning. Work with local
    law enforcement as well as DOD assets when possible.

    2. Meet basic needs – Some basic resources may be strained by the economic situation.
    Food, Gas, Oil and perhaps water supplies may be short. Have a community based
    approach to solve these problems. Look for subject matter experts to solve community
    based problems, such as home based medical care.

    3. Gather intelligence – Research and record information on criminal activity in your area.
    Use any previous recorded crime data to enhance security measures for your neighborhood.
    Watch for signs of increased DOD presence as well as restrictions of movement by
    government officials. As crime increases, responses to these crimes will be met with the
    appropriate counter force. Use this information to assist in the modification of the forecasting
    model and make appropriate changes to that model.

    4. Communicate & Network – Communications with your group should increase.
    Communications with satellite groups should increase. Discuss the next threat level and
    adjust both the forecasting model and your plan of action as needed. Be aware of your
    group geographic limitations regarding possible restriction of movement. Adjust
    communications to compensate for restrictions of movement. Use the current threat level as
    a tool of “education” in your networking process. Draft alternate plans of communication
    should a catastrophic event compromise current communications. Test these alternate forms
    of communication on a regular basis.

    5. Enhance training and planning – Multi level training events with satellite groups should be
    conducted more frequently. Plan training scenarios on current events. Modify and enhance
    training objectives as needed. Monitor activity at all planned rally points and adjust locations
    if needed.

    Scenario 3: “Black Swan Event”

    A Black Swan event or occurrence is one that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a
    situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. Some analysts agree that the attack on 9-
    11-2001 was such an event. The DOD refers to these events as “Strategic Shocks”. After 9-11, the
    DOD looked more closely at forecasting potential Strategic Shocks. Many of the forecasting models
    included non-military events (Natural disaster, Pandemic ect.) that could initiate a cascade of reactions
    including civil disruptions within CONUS. Although predicting these events will greatly enhance
    recommended responses on our part, it is not entirely needed for establishing general guidelines.
    We must understand that a Black Swan event combined with either of the above scenarios is likely
    to create greater difficulties. There are two general (possible) outcomes regarding responses of DOD-LEO
    and one likely response of the civilian population. The DOD-LEO response and outcome will
    be guided by the level of response of the civilian population. If event predictors indicated by the
    DOD study of a Black Swan event are correct, civil unrest will likely overwhelm law enforcement
    officials and the DOD will be forced to assist. There is another possibility of civil difficulties that may
    even overwhelm the DOD assets. Any Black Swan event, coupled with an already weakened
    economic state, may create large dislocations of population and civil unrest. A Black Swan event
    may make populated areas uninhabitable.


    1. Relocate – Initiate your relocation plan. Move to pre-planned staging areas and gain
    accountability of personnel and equipment. If possible, pre-stage non-essential items such
    as tools and hardware for shelter improvement at the final objective. Pre-planned staging
    areas should be used to gather before movement to the final objective. A movement plan
    should be detailed and operations order issued. A secondary movement plan should be
    established that does not include motor vehicles.

    2. Meet basic needs – Food, Water and Shelter are priority. Enhance each of these needs as
    time permits. If possible, pre-stage any items that may enhance capabilities in these areas.
    Establish a long term plan for the provision of food and water. Utilize subject matter experts
    in this area. Establish a plan for healthcare if possible.

    3. Meet Security Needs – Establish a security plan. Improve this plan as time permits. If other
    groups are located in known areas, establish a working relationship if the tactical situation
    permits such a relationship.

    4. Communications – Establish and improve a communications plan as time permits.

    5. Resupply – This is more likely a plan that will needed to be established after a period of
    adjustment. Many unknown variables will be involved in the process.

    Strategic Studies Institute US Army War College
    Known Unknowns: Unconventional "Strategic Shocks" in Defense Strategy Development –Nov 2008
    NC Crime Control and Public Safety
    North & South Carolina Gangs
    Army Times
    Brigade homeland tours start Oct.1 – Sept 2008
    Last edited by hminus; 09-07-2010, 10:15 AM.


    • #77
      If at work when a riot breaks out..... I'd observe the situation , determine weither I'd have to travel near the crowds. If so. Grab the GHB and .45 leave my truck, and follow the railroad tracks back to my home. Which is about 8 miles from work. If at home hunker down, listen to the shortwave for some news as to the severity of the event , and the goverments responce. If things started heading south real fast. Load up the Bug out vehicle{4wheeler} and head to the first retreat following the power lines away from the problem. Then don't show my ass again until things have cleared.


      • #78
        cb bs i'm with yall i'll grab the kids the fishing rods and of course a few bang bangs and head fer the swamp as far as the dizzy lizard my granddaddy fought for this country my daddy and uncles did as well as me an my cousins we took an oath upon entrace to defend this country against all enemies foreign and domestic that being said my son is and will be free for his life u r fre to ur opinion but a citizen with a gun is an armed citizen a citizen without a gun is a statistic
        the pack that plays together stays together