A third la-nina year in row ??

[Nik]

Looks like we're heading for third consecutive la-nina year, which is, um, rather unusual...

IIRC, Australia has issued a generic warning that there'll be 'even more of the same crazy weather' they've had since ~2020.

Also, on other side of Pacific, US & Canada West Coast's coastal storms, mid-West megadrought etc etc are likely to be ratcheted up a notch or three.

So, check your locale, your prep, your routes, your fords etc lest 2023's la-nina cranks up the volume to 'WTF' ??

Any la-nina has consequences on other side of Atlantic, too.The 'jet stream' is likely to wriggle even more, bringing even wilder unseasonal extremes. We've been forecast a 'remarkably warm' 2022 Halloween plus Sahara dust (In late October !!) due to current 'excursion'. Hopefully, it will not be followed by an 'Arctic Arrival'...

Must be said I'm hoping for a really mild UK winter. I took the precaution of 'locking in' my utility gas/electric prices, but a lot of my neighbours are already suffering scary utility bill hikes...

Stay safe !!

[Nik]

That's weird: Forum timed-out while I was typing that post...

[Tugaloo]

You're lucky as there are millions here that wish they could lock in their utility prices.


Here the predictions are the same as central Europe or a colder than warmer winter is predicted.

Last year, I had a whole house generator installed. I paid for the propane and tanks up front. It took a few months before the generator was installed. The propane delivery man said saved $0.55 per gallon by prepaying. I saved $200.

[Nik]

https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2022/10/27/yucaipa-1/

Debris flow in San Bernardino mountains.
quote:
The video is also on Youtube. This series of debris flows, which occurred over the period of a single hour, were generated from the scar of the 2020 El Dorado fire by intense precipitation. The events occurred on 12 September 2022 when the remnants of Tropical Storm Kay triggered heavy rainfall – up to 60 mm was recorded. The debris flows affected two communities, Forest Falls and Yucaiba. The Los Angeles Times has reported that a women was killed in Forest Falls. The same article has some dramatic images of the aftermath:-
/

[Tugaloo]

That was a extreme amount of damage from 60 mm or 2.36" of rain. Here, we've had a lot more rain with no damage. As they don't allow controlled burns to remove dead brush and more; California has experienced a lot of wildfires. TS Kay's 60 mm or 2.36" of rain sent all that ash downhill.

Grant said, but the 2020 fire left them vulnerable to mud flow raging down Birch Creek, which runs through many of their properties.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...d%20mud%20over took%20her%20home

If the link doesn't work, it is here: https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/.../27/yucaipa-1/ at this embedded hypertext The Los Angeles Times has reported that a women was killed in Forest Falls.

Interesting article; thanks, Nix.

[Nik]

Now another source of landslide hazards, un-maintained logging / mining access roads.

https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2022/10/28/duffey-lake-1/

quote:
The problem, he said, was in the area of a switchback. Two older, small landslides had left debris resting on the road below the switchback, plugging a ditch. The water then ran down the road instead of crossing over the road and going down a stable slope.

It was the diversion and concentration of water from the road that triggered the initial failures high above Highway 99. Given the steepness of the terrain, they were able to turn into a major landslides that impacted the main road at the foot of the slope.
/

This was a remarkably long way up-hill from where the growing flow finally encountered 'Highway 99'...

[Armyjimbo]

In a period from 13 to 15 November, Hope in Fraser Valley Regional District recorded 225 mm of rain. I'm just under 1 hr away from there. we got slightly less but the Coldwater river went up approx 5 ft last year.

[Tugaloo]

225 mm (8.86") is a lot of rain.

In 2020, there was over 8" (200+ mm) here. Both the river and creek came out of their banks. About 40' (12 m) to 50' (18.3 m) was water covered.

[Armyjimbo]

Yea my flood was just the tip, the people near Vancouver BC forget the area is a flood plain.

https://globalnews.ca/tag/sumas-prairie-flooding/

[Tugaloo]

AJ,
That sounds seriously bad, be glad you missed the full brunt of it.

Things go so well until Mother Nature decides to show us she rules.

Here, we live in a forest and it has been very dry or not good. So far tonight, we've had .16" (4.1 mm) of rain. As a forest fire would be very bad; the rain was a relief.

[Armyjimbo]

Well.last year prior to the flood we had this little incident. So I helped a friend and kept a garden hose on his house.

[Tugaloo]

Where they doing controlled burns to minimize the risk of fires?

I used to live near Ft. Bragg, NC. The forests are mostly long leaf pines and some scrub oaks. The pines drop a lot of pine needles. The forests have a large amounts of fire break roads. Every so often, I'd see people walking with kerosene sprinklers and they'd light it. In 14 years, I never heard of a forest fire there.

Speaking of forest fires; here October was a very dry month. Since midnight last night, .6" (~15mm) of badly needed rain.

[Armyjimbo]

No controlled burns, no water drops. The province just let it run, untill it threatened the Coquhalia highway AKA HWY 5 that connects to Vancouver and is THE major transportation route in BC. The province jumped on the exploded hand grenade after it went off washing 3 bridges and 100's of meters of the road in various places.

[Tugaloo]

We've seen helicopters filling huge buckets out of Keowee Lake. Then fly it to the fire and dump it. Some hikers had a campfire and started a huge forest fire. Idiots.

Why did they ignore the problem until it was too late?

Here's a list of the greatest lies.
The check is in the mail.
The problem is fixed in the next software release.
And the greatest lie ever told...
I'm from the government and I'm here to help.

[Armyjimbo]

My bad, the washouts were due to the flood from the atmospheric river. When the province built it early 80s they didn't put any big armor rock to protect the water path. The fires in the summer took away soil stability.