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Official: Economic Strife Poses Security Threat to U.S.
Official: Economic Strife Poses Security Threat to U.S.
By Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, February 12, 2009; 3:22 PM
Director of National Intelligence Dennis C. Blair told Congress today that instability in countries around the world caused by the current global economic crisis rather than terrorism is the primary near-term security threat to the United States.
"Roughly a quarter of the countries in the world have already experienced low-level instability such as government changes because of the current slowdown," Blair told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, delivering the first annual threat assessment in six years in which terrorism was not presented as the primary danger to the country.
Making his first appearance before the panel as President Obama's top intelligence adviser, Blair said the most immediate fallout from the worldwide economic decline for the United States will be "allies and friends not being able to fully meet their defense and humanitarian obligations." He also saw the prospect of possible refugee flows from the Caribbean to the United States, and a questioning of American economic and financial leadership in the world.
But Blair also raised the specter of the "high levels of violent extremism" in the turmoil of the 1920s and 1930s along with "regime-threatening instability" if the economic crisis persists over a one- to two-year period.
In discussing terrorism, Blair emphasized the progress being made against al-Qaeda, saying, "We have seen notable progress in Muslim opinion turning against terrorist groups like al-Qaeda" as more religious leaders question the use of brutal tactics against fellow Muslims. He said that "al-Qaeda today is less capable and effective than it was a year ago" based on the pressure the United States, Pakistan and others put on Osama bin Ladin and his core leadership in Pakistan's tribal areas and the decline of al-Qaeda in Iraq.
Despite these successes, Blair said al-Qaeda and its affiliates and allies "remain dangerous and adaptive enemies" and that the threat continues that they could inspire or orchestrate an attack on the United States or European countries. He told the committee there is still concern that al-Qaeda could inspire some homegrown terrorists inside the United States. He added that if al-Qaeda is ever forced out of the Pakistan tribal areas, it would have difficulty supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan. He said bin Ladin could relocate to other areas. For example, he said, al-Qaeda elements in Yemen now pose a new threat to Saudi Arabia, whose own efforts up to now have been successful in killing or capturing most al-Qaeda senior leaders in that country.
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