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SHTF article from Market Trader

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  • SHTF article from Market Trader

    Here is an exerpt of an article from Roger Weigand, market and commoditiy trader from Michigan... Pretty intense stuff for a businessman.
    entire article here:

    Being Poor Is A Hardship.
    Being Poor In The Middle Of Social Violence Is Untenable.

    The U.S. has resources to provide enough food and shelter for the poor, and newly jobless with little strain. They won’t do it because the government is always a reactor not an initiator in solving problems. This means there is a social upheaval ahead worse than ten Katrina’s. The sad part is it could be avoided if the authorities would just get busy and get the aid out and delivered. They won’t because they are too stupid and disorganized. Watch the fallout from this mess!!

    Families, singles, children, and pensioners are going hungry for lack of adequate nourishment many times trading food money for utilities or rent; not being able to afford all necessities. Here we sit with millions of vacate homes and more coming yet we lack adequate housing for the poor.

    The food banks are overrun with demands while millions of others throw food in the garbage. The food situation is one of transport and distribution rather than a lack. Governments are not even close to being prepared for the crushing demands of the cold and hungry we see in 2009-2012. Then, to make it all worse, when the US weather warms-up and gets hotter this summer, heat drives out the jobless and they go hunting on the streets. They will be on the prowl for free food, food to steal and committing crimes for other necessary goods they cannot afford.

    The terrible, old Los Angeles and Detroit riots and those of other larger urban areas will re-set new records for fires, destruction and mayhem. People read of the billions stolen by crooked bankers and their sleazy associates and anger is swiftly rising. We have no idea how crazy wild this can get but in our view meeting violence with more violence is not the answer. For those with limited resources it’s simply better to just get out of the way. For those with money and an obviously good lifestyle in the city, we expect you will be a daily robbery target. Better think about it.

    Back in the 1930’s depression, our population simply suffered in silence. While I suppose there was some crime, it was modest compared to what we see on the 2009 horizon. In this spoiled generation of me first-you last, there will be no time for suffering in silence. When an unemployed father needs milk for crying babies, he will get a weapon and go get the milk and food.

    We get second-hand reports of huge gangs in South Central L.A., and Chicago on both the north and south sides and others. California gangs are reported to outnumber the police 3 to 1 and worst of all they have automatic and heavy weapons. This is not going to be pretty.

    Even in the rural parts of the country, there are steady reports of thieves stealing farm equipment, robbing houses and taking fuel. Unattended property is a target. We think living in a small quiet town with good neighbors, being non-descript and blending in will provide a better life. If you can’t move, better make provision for a spot to land if your neighborhood goes bad overnight.

    Another ugly part of depression life is a clash of cultures and religions. The have nots will turn on the haves perceiving them to be part of the reason the poor are poor. Obviously this is ridiculous but that is an easy perception to embrace. Look for new nastiness among those cultures most prone to argue and pick-on each other and targets generally having a good life style with plenty of money.

    A new mindset is necessary to curtail higher, former lifestyles. I have friends who spend like they did ten years ago but do not have ten years’ ago resources. Inflation is insidious. It grinds away on your income with no raises or increases being few and far between. It grinds away with taxes, as cost increases constantly slide higher at a gradual but relentless pace. It takes away little pleasures like eating out more often or taking nice vacations. It tightens the belts of kids in high school who want more expensive stuff while school systems offer less and charge more. It bites on us with repairs and on things that break too often and cost too much. Once tiny, annual fees like a dog license or, auto registration keep going higher and higher.

    If most people took a real hard look at income and spending I think they would make tighter budgets, curtail old pleasures and get rough with letting a nickel go out the door. Most keep on keeping on, doing the same old stuff relative to spending and wonder why they are broke. Americans probably have the worst savings record in the world. They always spend far beyond their means, for the most part; living from check-to-check. I see it in Michigan in upscale neighborhoods where thirty somethings living in McMansions have a husband-wife income of $250-$300,000, being basically broke. They have multiple leased cars and trucks, a house payment that would choke a horse and plenty of extras including private clubs, special training, fancy vacations, private schools, and overdone holidays. Watch how this comes to a screeching halt!

    The chickens (vultures) are coming home to roost. Bye-Bye $150,000 per year auto engineer’s salaries, and here comes rising taxes as our esteemed governor takes more and spends more even in these distressed times. She thinks your earned money is her money. She never had a real job or met a payroll in her life. Let them eat cake she says; all is well. Watch where that goes. Taxpayer revolts are born of situations like this one.

    I’ve got some bad news for her. The tax income is skidding, big painful state lay-offs are just ahead and when schools begin to close, homeowners send in house keys to the bank and leave our state. There is going to be lots of jingle mail sent to the bankers this spring. Mark my words it’s going to be beyond ugly. Maybe Michigan will revert to the forest emulating Detroit where wildlife abounds and not the kind you think either.

    The USA War Machine Will Shrink.
    We Can’t Pay For It And Most Americans Are Tired Of Feeding.
    Defense Companies To Manufacture Stuff That’s Blown-Up And Wrecked.

    Global economic calamities redistribute national power. The survivors have independent energy sources or, they steal it from others. The Middle Eastern struggles with Israel and the Arabs will continue we think until it heaven forbid goes nuclear. NATO is going weaker in Europe as Putin closes in for the kill. South America has several newly-bent left-leaning commie countries courtesy of Hugo Chavez. His antics in his country and with neighbors, and Cuba and Mexico tell us this dude is on a rampage to spread big trouble right at the door-step of America in Mexico.

    We sincerely hope our new president is a tough guy with the bad guys. They will lend no quarter and are simply lying back in the weeds to take control by force. We suggest if the truth be known, Mexico is far out on the stability ledge as we speak. Our border guards and even the U.S.’s Border States’ National Guard are no match for those criminals in Northern and Central Mexico. New reports tell us they caused more deaths in Mexico last year than were counted in Iraq. This is very serious, indeed.

    New Currencies, Bretton Woods And T-Bonds

    Our New York global trading and investment banks will require constant infusions of new cash to stay afloat. The TARP funding and still more to come is tossing cash into a bottomless pit. One of the world’s bigger banks is going to fail this year and it will be a disaster.

    Next, one of the larger insurance companies will go bankrupt and create another shock to the core of our system and that of the world. This insurance company crash will be matched by a monster blue chip American company failing and shocking Wall Street.

    The U.S. Bond bubble is the mother of all bubbles and has tragic consequences for the entire world. These markets are 70 times larger than the shares markets and form the lifeblood of capital for global finance. When this one breaks, the reverberations slam the world’s financial systems to the bone.

    The old Bretton Woods system of having our USA dollar as the backbone of the world’s currency system could break down. The Asians and those in the Middle East are already forming new currency and trade platforms based upon brand new trading ideas. The U.S. Dollar is headed to .4600 on our forecasts; roughly a -50% haircut. We are all entering a brand new world. The old world is a goner and those who cannot change will wither and fail.

    Get with a new program and be busy moving in the right direction. The time is now and the time is short. We think after May, 2009, several chances to implant new trades, investment ideas, personal events and other things will be too late.

    Imposition of government capital controls can impede moving your business, cash, funds, and retirement in or, out of the U.S. It might be very expensive and difficult; or impossible.
    Last edited by TLM; 01-21-2009, 09:06 PM.

  • #2
    [QUOTE=TLM;9039]Here is an exerpt of an article from Roger Weigand, market and commoditiy trader from Michigan... Pretty intense stuff for a businessman.
    entire article here:


    • #3
      Anyone else thinking about pulling all their money out of retirement funds and converting it into barter goods and supplies while it is still worth something?
      Diplomacy is the art of saying "nice doggie" while picking up a big stick.


      • #4
        I've been running several scenarios through my head....I'm still trying to figure out the least costly way to do it. Big Bro tears you a new one on taxes any time you touch your retirement $$. My slogans always been, "If it ain't in your hands, you ain't got it". I'm open for suggestions.


        • #5
          I just bought 5 acres of land next to me and would buy more if it was made available. I am buying up supplies now but what is a good investment?

          I have lost half of my 401k and any money in the bank is only as good as tomorrows crash. what good is pile of cash if the dollar crashes. I have bought a couple of old cars and trucks that the average joe can work on and fix late 60's early 70's stuff and I just sitting on them keeping them cranked and in good running order. guns and ammo? I am thinking basic food, shelter, water would be a good investment, wind or solar alt power? gold silver? tractors to work the land? yea I am scratching my head (and other parts) over this too.

          I am glad for this site and others to network with like mined people to bounce ideas off of and somebody will have to be around to step up and re-build the country after the greed mongers crash it.


          • #6
            I've run buying land as well through my head, just concerned about tax values skyrocketing. I'm afraid the Govt. ain't gonna want you to own too much in the near future. No one really knows what to do other than prepare to feed your family and defend whats yours! I've got tractors, but you have to have seeds to sow. Some of this modern hybrid seed won't even reproduce its' self. Seen that with my own eyes. I suppose precious metals like brass and lead are always a sound investment.....


            • #7
              Originally posted by David M. View Post
              I suppose precious metals like brass and lead are always a sound investment.....
              In times of trouble they could be sent air mail... it makes a very
              convincing mind and mood altering attitude adjuster....err, just
              in case that would ever be neccessary ;)


              • #8
                Last September when I quit my job at Lowe's, I was offered my accrued 401k as a lump sum payout, which I accepted. I just recently received my year-to-date 401k holdings report:

                Period dates: Oct 1, 08-Dec 31, 08
                This period:
                Beginning balance: $2050.02 (contributions of myself and employer)
                Contributions: $0 (it's closed)
                Div's and Earnings: $6.29
                Market value change: -$165.58 (from last period)
                Distributions: -$1890.73 (check disbursement)

                Year to date:
                Beginning: $1,210.34 (my personal contributions)
                Contributions: $870.60
                Divs and earnings: 21.06
                Market Value Change: -$205.58 (since last year)

                Market value change has gone down in the last period over 3/4 the amount of the entire year.

                Suggestion to those with 401k's, I'd say empty it, and pay the penalties. IMHO it's better than losing most of it due to collapse of the market.
                "Reject the basic assumptions of civilization, especially the importance of material possessions." "The things you own end up owning you"-Tyler Durden