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The greatest threat?

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  • The greatest threat?

    When a major collapse does happen, a high majority of humanity will die within 30 days. Within a year it will be down to those who truly prepared and have the mindset to survive...and start rebuilding. But a major concern to me isn't the neighbor who can't live without fast food, or the family members who find you and want the supplies you've built up while they laughed. I think one of the greatest threats will come from survivalists that live by taking from others. These survivalists won't build shelters, plant gardens, clean wells........they will kill to get what they want and justify their actions by saying the strong survive. When they have no one else to kill and loot, they will die as they don't have the skills or tools to survive. In most areas it's nearly impossible to simply disappear into nature......too many others are thinking the same thing. Planting a garden only advertises your location. Domesticated animals only indicate your relative wealth. Defending against the roving killing teams would be difficult unless you fort up with a larger group and that brings it's own issues. What are the ideas of defending against this? Look at it from the perspective of a family with young children.....
    Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum

  • #2
    "When a major collapse does happen, a high majority of humanity will die within 30 days"

    I don't know of any time in history that really happened, so I don't see it as being very realistic.
    Most "shtf" situations are more localized.

    Planning to survive what is most likely to happen is also the same as planning for the least likely.

    The best plan is to always be realistic when looking for solutions.

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    • #3
      The problem is that people will NOT give up the good deal they have with their current living environment. And they want to figure some solution for SHTF, that allows them to continue to enjoy the "Good" Life now and for as long as possible.

      There are good and great solutions, but you have to give up what you have.......You simply can't have both.
      One day you eat the chicken.....next day the left-over chicken.....next five days you eat chicken feathers, head and feet.

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      • #4
        Interesting question, Lalakai. True, a large number of people will die within the first 30 days. We are much more reliant on maintenance medical care than in the past. The Black Plague in the middle ages killed about 25% of the population, and the Spanish Flu in the 1900's only killed 2-3% of the population, so the reduction in the population would be dependent on the type of event. I don't know that we can say "a majority would die".

        Given the scenario IMHO it says "GROUP". I don't agree with the Lone Wolf philosophy of survival. I think your chances increase dramatically in a group. You can't stay awake 24/7 to defend your property. Under the best of circumstances you would not survive the overwhelming force of a larger group. Your group would have to be fortified, and able to defend whatever property and supplies you have. My mind immediately goes back to the old medieval castles where people lived close, and when a threat arose they went inside the castle walls. Food and water would have to be secured, and enough for the entire group would be required. A well or some water source would have to be available and secure.

        Don't you wish you could hit the lottery and build something like that?! I think it would be fun. Good food for thought.
        The only place success comes before work is in the dictionary.

        Everything happens for a reason. Sometimes the reason is you are stupid, and make bad decisions.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Morgan101 View Post
          I don't agree with the Lone Wolf philosophy of survival. I think your chances increase dramatically in a group. You can't stay awake 24/7 to defend your property. Under the best of circumstances you would not survive the overwhelming force of a larger group. .
          Always it is assumed that the so called "Lone Wolf" is in the same habitat as the others striving for survival, and in some degree of competition for resources.

          Why is it so hard for people to grasp that you don't need to stay awake 24/7 or have security guards. Just don't be anywhere near other humans.

          Want to avoid pandemic.......easy, have zero human contact.

          I support the group concept.......but "ONLY" if I am the weakest link in the group. But.......that is the exact opposite of groups, groups are comprised largely of people who are fat and lazy and out of shape, who want to lead or manage the group, not healthy hard workers, able to do hard manual labor 14-16 hours a day.

          People have this silly idea that the members of the group will follow orders. Or.......even more crazy that they "CAN" follow orders.

          Here is the painful reality of groups, they will be nearly totally comprised of fat, sickly/drug dependent, lazy, terrified, confused, sniveling, crying, complaining, pissed-off, hungry people that feel they are not getting their fair share of food and resources. They will want to be the leader, they will sabotage the leader covertly. Nearly everyone will be suicidal.

          You will not have a group of all 27 y/o elite military bad-ass warriors highly trained in survival, able to follow orders without question, and able to endure pain and suffering for entertainment.

          If your hell bent on the "Group" solution, then get wrapped around the reality that the smaller the group the better, and the more common fiber running through the group the better, As in family, or ethnic or religious cohesion.

          Most humans will not willingly die for their neighbors. The willingness to give ones live for the group is what makes it a viable group for survival.........damn hard to find that quality outside of family.

          I always return to the single best answer is to hide from all humans for as long as it takes, for them to stabilize.

          One day you eat the chicken.....next day the left-over chicken.....next five days you eat chicken feathers, head and feet.

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          • #6
            the "group" issue is a difficult one for me. I see the logic and can understand how it would be a benefit. lol but I'm a terrible leader, and a terrible follower; the "good' window for both those situations is narrow. i'll support the group, but the leader has to be there for the right reasons and doing the job as it should be done. I'll lead a group but everyone needs to pull their weight in their niche. Biggest issue with this process, is how most people are being raised today, expecting life to be handed to them, not accepting that sometimes it requires very hard work and little immediate return. Even my kids split this issue. Two oldest are very hard working, plan for the future and have a good handle on life. Middle two are a lost cause, drifting throughout life, complaining about how they've been treated. Youngest is following the path of the older two.

            In an unknown group, joining a new group, it was be very difficult for me even as I accept it might improve my chances for survival. Hopefully this will remain an academic dispute.
            Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum

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            • #7
              Being "solo" it is an easy choice for me. But, it would require massive pre-staging and pre-planning for a even a small family.

              One day you eat the chicken.....next day the left-over chicken.....next five days you eat chicken feathers, head and feet.

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              • #8
                The end as we consider that fact draws many conclusions just look at all the books published about the end of the world.

                Here is some real world facts:

                1. All food chains use a 3 day supply on hand! Once that is gone (Seen it prior to hurricanes) If you are late getting to the store, there is nothing left and none will arrive within 5+ days.

                2. All food is moved by truck, to the food stores, so if no trucks no resupply.

                3. Government will step in and keep these trucks away from a disaster site, until critical infrastructure is maintained, (Police, water, electrical, and road clearance. This can take 30+ days.

                PR still (1 year +) does not have all it's electrical power back up!

                4. If you leave the disaster area, you will not be able to return home, due to No. 3.

                Food for thought!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by RICHFL View Post
                  The end as we consider that fact draws many conclusions just look at all the books published about the end of the world.

                  Here is some real world facts:

                  1. All food chains use a 3 day supply on hand! Once that is gone (Seen it prior to hurricanes) If you are late getting to the store, there is nothing left and none will arrive within 5+ days.

                  2. All food is moved by truck, to the food stores, so if no trucks no resupply.

                  3. Government will step in and keep these trucks away from a disaster site, until critical infrastructure is maintained, (Police, water, electrical, and road clearance. This can take 30+ days.

                  PR still (1 year +) does not have all it's electrical power back up!

                  4. If you leave the disaster area, you will not be able to return home, due to No. 3.

                  Food for thought!
                  PR's power was fully restored a couple of weeks ago.
                  Most of the rest of those things are dependent on the details of the disaster.

                  The "greatest threat" is one's own failure to prepare to survive as long as possible without having to buy anything, or receive any handouts.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Snyper708 View Post


                    The "greatest threat" is one's own failure to prepare to survive as long as possible without having to buy anything, or receive any handouts.
                    In other words, to take responsibility for their own actions and not believe they are victims simply by being born. So many of a certain age group believe that!

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                    • #11
                      You are so right ZAGran. I have watched people around here that would rather be on welfare than get a job and try to better their lives. I had a neighbor that flat out told me she was coming to my house to get food if anything happened. She has since passed away so that problem is solved but how many more out there in peoples neighborhoods that is not as bold as to say they will come take what you have as she was. We really don't know what will happen but I don't think it will be good. Just the weather we've had all over the US is bad enough. Fires, earthquakes, volcanoes ETC. That doesn't even count possability of war. All I can say at this time is keep your eye on Turkey, Russia and China..

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