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I received this in an email earlier today and thought it would be a great conversation piece for everyone to comment on. I do not know who wrote it and it is all doom and gloom, panic NOW kind of stuff (which I do not buy into), but it does give one pause to think.
Enjoy.;)
LH
WAKE UP!!! GET YOUR THINGS IN ORDER NOW!!!
Make sure you have access to food, water and shelter. Things are about to get really bad, really fast.
Here's the deal: When studying the history and sociology of economic collapse, one quickly comes to understand certain very important dynamics. These include, but are not limited to, the following five: lies, exponents, lag, panic & militancy. Let's briefly examine all FIVE:
LIES: Sure we know that "they" are lying about pretty much everything. No surprises there. But understand this---when the government reports 8.1% unemployment, they are (a) clearly under-reporting the numbers, (b) not accounting for the demographic component in such an estimation, and (c) reporting U3 numbers. So, what does this all mean? Well, for one thing it means that some parts of the country are already at or above 25% U6 unemployment. And if a large urban area is experiencing 25% unemployment, and if one thing "goes wrong" (one instance of police brutality, one dramatic bank closing, one instance of radical response to a foreclosure eviction), and if that one thing is captured on video and watched by tens of millions of other angry, unemployed people...well you get the picture.
EXPONENTS: Unemployment increases follow exponential, or algorithmic functions, vis-a-vis expansion. This is because for each unemployed individual, others whose lives, however discreetly or indirectly, are connected to this individual are also adversely impacted. And what begins as "adverse impact" quickly spirals into joblessness. A simple example: 60 lay offs at Dartmouth College last month (I was one) means that the sandwich and coffee shop closest to campus sees a decrease in revenue not only from the newly unemployed BUT ALSO from those who fear they are next! Soon the coffee shop is forced to lay off employees too, and the stress on the local economy continues to spiral out of control.
LAG: Lag time is a critical variable. It's kind of like a societal Doppler Effect. 15% U6 unemployment in February not only means 16.5% U6 unemployment in March, but more importantly it means that the IMPACT of such numbers does not hit most families and/or individuals for a few months. Most folks get severance packages, or have a little money stored up for a rainy day, etc. Those resources usually disappear within 2-3 months of one becoming unemployed. And once those resources are gone, that's it. AND, considering the FACT that most states' unemployment insurance funds are totally insolvent: A recipe for systemic implosion is born.
PANIC: Once "the RUN" begins, once the panic starts, it takes on its own life. Once the first video hits YouTube showing the windows of a local Price Chopper getting smashed, it's over. And that is coming sooner rather than later. It's already occurring all over Europe and Asia. Why the hell would we be immune?!!?
MILITANCY: Why do you think the Democrats and Mr. Obama birthed a bloated, ineffectual $800 Billion "stimulus" package? To stimulate growth??? C'mon! They know that it cannot save an economy that is literally tens of TRILLIONS of dollars in the hole. They created it to essentially pay off the most militant sectors of society. Regardless of your ideological predisposition, it is hard not to recognize that millions of unemployed UNION workers means millions of angry members of organized-labor in the streets. Do you think the government knows that GM is no longer a going concern??? Of course they do! But Mr. Obama is not about to watch millions of newly unemployed auto-workers march out of the factories and onto the picket lines. Combined with other forces ongoing in our crashing financial and social sectors, and this could be the straw that brings the nation to its knees.
Do you think I exaggerate? Take a couple of hours and go to my blog and find the "LINKS" in the right margin and click through and read articles and pieces and excerpts from each. Things are getting increasingly hairy for a whole lot of folks, and negative-event loops are accelerating at an extraordinary rate. It's actually quite spooky to now see the mainstream media beginning to panic---and it's about to get much, much worse. And here is the most critical point to take from this post: It only takes one event to catalyze the unwind: one Crispus Attucks, one Amritsar, one Sharpeville. And do you really think that the police are going to save the day for the government??? The police, who also find themselves at the very end of the financial rope???? We are teetering on the edge folks.
The key time frame obviously is between Memorial Day and Labor Day. The nation's summer "leisure" economy is going to fall right off of the cliff; the electric grid is going to be under more strain than it ever has before; the ability of state and federal governments to respond effectively to natural disasters (hurricanes, tornadoes, floods) that peak in late spring and summer is going to be substantially mitigated.
I tend not to be too alarmist. I don't enjoy "gloom-and-doom" orgies that, at times, predominate our conversations about the current economic state of affairs. As you know, I am in fact trying to do some mainstream organizing. I'm up in Montpelier, VT trying to affect policy change, and I am coordinating sustainability events in my town, etc. But y'know what? Right after I finish this post I'm going to the local gun shop and purchasing 250 more rounds for my .223
Plan now for what increasingly seems to be inevitable:
The great societal meltdown of 2009.
Enjoy.;)
LH
WAKE UP!!! GET YOUR THINGS IN ORDER NOW!!!
Make sure you have access to food, water and shelter. Things are about to get really bad, really fast.
Here's the deal: When studying the history and sociology of economic collapse, one quickly comes to understand certain very important dynamics. These include, but are not limited to, the following five: lies, exponents, lag, panic & militancy. Let's briefly examine all FIVE:
LIES: Sure we know that "they" are lying about pretty much everything. No surprises there. But understand this---when the government reports 8.1% unemployment, they are (a) clearly under-reporting the numbers, (b) not accounting for the demographic component in such an estimation, and (c) reporting U3 numbers. So, what does this all mean? Well, for one thing it means that some parts of the country are already at or above 25% U6 unemployment. And if a large urban area is experiencing 25% unemployment, and if one thing "goes wrong" (one instance of police brutality, one dramatic bank closing, one instance of radical response to a foreclosure eviction), and if that one thing is captured on video and watched by tens of millions of other angry, unemployed people...well you get the picture.
EXPONENTS: Unemployment increases follow exponential, or algorithmic functions, vis-a-vis expansion. This is because for each unemployed individual, others whose lives, however discreetly or indirectly, are connected to this individual are also adversely impacted. And what begins as "adverse impact" quickly spirals into joblessness. A simple example: 60 lay offs at Dartmouth College last month (I was one) means that the sandwich and coffee shop closest to campus sees a decrease in revenue not only from the newly unemployed BUT ALSO from those who fear they are next! Soon the coffee shop is forced to lay off employees too, and the stress on the local economy continues to spiral out of control.
LAG: Lag time is a critical variable. It's kind of like a societal Doppler Effect. 15% U6 unemployment in February not only means 16.5% U6 unemployment in March, but more importantly it means that the IMPACT of such numbers does not hit most families and/or individuals for a few months. Most folks get severance packages, or have a little money stored up for a rainy day, etc. Those resources usually disappear within 2-3 months of one becoming unemployed. And once those resources are gone, that's it. AND, considering the FACT that most states' unemployment insurance funds are totally insolvent: A recipe for systemic implosion is born.
PANIC: Once "the RUN" begins, once the panic starts, it takes on its own life. Once the first video hits YouTube showing the windows of a local Price Chopper getting smashed, it's over. And that is coming sooner rather than later. It's already occurring all over Europe and Asia. Why the hell would we be immune?!!?
MILITANCY: Why do you think the Democrats and Mr. Obama birthed a bloated, ineffectual $800 Billion "stimulus" package? To stimulate growth??? C'mon! They know that it cannot save an economy that is literally tens of TRILLIONS of dollars in the hole. They created it to essentially pay off the most militant sectors of society. Regardless of your ideological predisposition, it is hard not to recognize that millions of unemployed UNION workers means millions of angry members of organized-labor in the streets. Do you think the government knows that GM is no longer a going concern??? Of course they do! But Mr. Obama is not about to watch millions of newly unemployed auto-workers march out of the factories and onto the picket lines. Combined with other forces ongoing in our crashing financial and social sectors, and this could be the straw that brings the nation to its knees.
Do you think I exaggerate? Take a couple of hours and go to my blog and find the "LINKS" in the right margin and click through and read articles and pieces and excerpts from each. Things are getting increasingly hairy for a whole lot of folks, and negative-event loops are accelerating at an extraordinary rate. It's actually quite spooky to now see the mainstream media beginning to panic---and it's about to get much, much worse. And here is the most critical point to take from this post: It only takes one event to catalyze the unwind: one Crispus Attucks, one Amritsar, one Sharpeville. And do you really think that the police are going to save the day for the government??? The police, who also find themselves at the very end of the financial rope???? We are teetering on the edge folks.
The key time frame obviously is between Memorial Day and Labor Day. The nation's summer "leisure" economy is going to fall right off of the cliff; the electric grid is going to be under more strain than it ever has before; the ability of state and federal governments to respond effectively to natural disasters (hurricanes, tornadoes, floods) that peak in late spring and summer is going to be substantially mitigated.
I tend not to be too alarmist. I don't enjoy "gloom-and-doom" orgies that, at times, predominate our conversations about the current economic state of affairs. As you know, I am in fact trying to do some mainstream organizing. I'm up in Montpelier, VT trying to affect policy change, and I am coordinating sustainability events in my town, etc. But y'know what? Right after I finish this post I'm going to the local gun shop and purchasing 250 more rounds for my .223
Plan now for what increasingly seems to be inevitable:
The great societal meltdown of 2009.
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